Betting for Heavyweights: Winning Boxing Betting Strategies
With boxing it’s pretty much a 2-horse race – if you excuse the inappropriate horse racing analogy. There are 3 main outcomes, either a boxer wins, loses or draws. Simple. However, there are many other variables to base your strategies around rather than just a bet on the winner. The winner could win by knock-out or points. He could win in the first round or twelfth round. Also, he could win by a high number of points or low number. He may even win virtually all the rounds or just a small majority. All of these exciting variables ensure that there are great boxing betting strategies out there that can ensure the best returns on your wager if you know what you are doing.
Boxing Betting Moneyline Strategy
This really is as simple as betting on who you believe will be the outright winner of the bout. It’s simple, it’s quick and more often than not, it’s one of the easiest outcomes to wager on. Although obviously, the easier it is to pick who wins the fight, the less return you’ll get on your money. Now, with a moneyline wager, the most important factor is picking the outright winner. Here, moneyline bets utilise the odds in order to balance out the competition. If you bet on a boxer who is unlikely to win, you’re more likely to get a bigger payout.
When looking at an online bookmaker in order to place a moneyline bet, the one element you really need to notice is the number that is written next to the boxer. If the number is a negative number, then this boxer is the favourite to win; if it is a positive number, then they would be considered the underdog. However, if the fight is evens, then both boxers would have a negative number next to their name. So, here’s an example of what you might see:
Anthony Joshua -230
Dillian Whyte – +240
The negative number next to Anthony Joshua implies that he is odds on favourite to win the bout and Dillian Whyte is considered underdog in this bout. Now, with these numbers, if you were to bet on Anthony Joshua to win, then you would need to bet £230 in order to get a £100 return. So, your stake would be £230 and if he won, then you’d get back a total of £330.
Taking a Chance on the Underdog
However, if you were to look at these odds and decide that for some reason, you believe that Dillian Whyte could be the victor, and then with these figures, if you were to bet £100, then you’d get a return of £240, so your stake would be £100 and your return would be £340. So, if you were to take a chance on the underdog, then the returns are much greater.
Obviously though, the bookmakers know what they are talking about, so if you used this strategy to make your bets, then the wise money would be to wager on the favourite. You may not get huge returns for your money, but you will likely see profits overall. This is a small and steady strategy for people who aren’t the type to take the big risks. To make this work, check out the bookmakers with the best odds.
Over/Under Betting Strategy
If you are feeling a little more confident in the fight than just picking a winner, then you could always use the over/under strategy in boxing betting. This isn’t just a football betting strategy or cricket betting strategy; it’s also a great boxing betting strategy. If you believe that not only will Anthony Joshua win, but he’ll win very early on – or if you believe that he’ll win, but the fight will go the whole distance, then this is perfect for you. With the over/under strategy, it really doesn’t even matter who does win the fight, just as long as it lasts for as long as you think it will.
So, if you bet on under, thinking Anthony Joshua will win by knockout or stoppage early, then even if Dillian Whyte wins early, as long as the fight lasts as long as your bet suggests, then you’ll be in the money. A over/under bet might look like this:
Anthony Joshua v Dillian Whyte
Over 11.5 (-180)
Under 11.5 (+150)
Here you are betting on whether the fight will last over 11.5 rounds or under 11.5 rounds. In this example, the bookies believe that the favourite is over 11.5, as it has a negative number attached. If you place a £180 bet on over 11.5, you’ll get a return of £100, so you’ll get £280 back. If you bet £100 that it will last under 11.5 rounds, you’ll get a return of £150, meaning you’ll get £250 back.
Betting on Over
Contrary to popular belief, if you bet on over, then you need to make sure that the fight goes on until at least half way through the 12th round to win. As soon as it hits 1 minute 30 seconds into the 12th round, any stoppage after that will see you victorious. Many people think that it’s half way through round 11, but the 11.5 means that the fight lasts at least 11.5 complete rounds, which ups the ante a little more.
Also, you need to take into consideration that if the fight stops for any reason before then, the bet is lost. The reason the fight is stopped makes no difference whatsoever. Even if bad officiating or an event outside of the boxing ring causes the fight to be abandoned, it’s irrelevant. You are betting that it lasts for over 11.5 rounds, so if it doesn’t, you lose. Because of this, you really need to not only check out the fighters before the fight, but also the referee.
If you’re betting on over, then you really want to avoid referees who are notorious for stopping fights early, or at least have a reasonable record of doing so. There are some referees who like to let the boxers slug it out and these are the refs you want to see if you’re betting on an over result. Certain British refs, such as Howard Foster are seen as refs who like an early stoppage, so an over with one of his fights is a lot less likely than a ref like Victor Loughlin who has let some big fights go on for quite some time without stopping them.
The Method of Victory Strategy
This boxing betting strategy will require you to be more aware of the boxers’ skills. You have to understand the chances they have of the ref actually stopping the fight before the final bell. There are 5 possible outcomes to any boxing match and this strategy requires you to pick one of those 5 outcomes. There could be a points win for either boxer, a stoppage win for either boxer, or a draw. Your job is to do the research on the players and the referee and decide which outcome you think is most likely. For example:
Anthony Joshua by stoppage -180
Anthony Joshua on points +180
Dillian Whyte by stoppage +1100
Dillian Whyte by points +350
Understanding the Numbers
As you can see, the bookies believe that the most likely outcome of this fight is that Anthony Joshua will win by stoppage. It doesn’t matter when that stoppage occurs, whether it’s in the 1st round or 12th round, if you bet £180, you’ll get a £100 return… £280 in total. Clearly, bookies see other results as improbable, so bet £100 on any of the other outcomes and you will get a return of £180 for an Anthony Joshua point win, £1,100 return for a Dillian Whyte stoppage, £350 for a Dillian Whyte points win and an incredible £2,750 return if the outcome was a draw.
Clearly, the higher the figure, the less chance there is of this being the result, although it is still possible. So, with this strategy, if you want to go as risk free as possible and get small returns, place a wager on the favourite result. However, if you don’t mind a risk and are comfortable with the idea of losing your wager, then you could make big money by betting on one of the more unlikely outcomes.
Betting on Rounds Strategy
This is a slightly more risky version of the over/under boxing betting strategy. Here, you need to decide how many rounds you feel the bout will last. With Over/Under, if you bet under, then you simply believe that the referee will stop the fight anywhere between round 1 and round 11. However, here you need to be a little more specific. You need to be more aware of the current performance and form of both of the boxers in the ring, as well as researching they type of ref.
Straightforward round betting simply requires you to decide which round you think the ref will stop the fight. This is not an easy bet. Even if you’re aware of the boxers form and know it will be an early stoppage, it’s hard to know when. It could be in the first three rounds as there are so many variables to take into account. This is the reason that this is a boxing strategy that will offer pretty decent odds. Obviously, if there is a clear winner, then the odds will be shorter in the earlier rounds. If the fight is more equal, then the higher the round, the shorter the odds.
If you aren’t confident in picking a specific round, then you could opt for the Round Group Boxing Betting strategy. This will group certain rounds together. Obviously your chance of winning is better as you may think the referee will stop it early, so you could pick rounds 1, 2 and 3 grouped together. Sometimes there are as many as 6 different rounds grouped together. However, the more rounds that are grouped together, the shorter the odds. The more risk you take, as in most strategies, the better that payout. The best option with Round Group Boxing Betting strategy is to go for smaller groups. This way you’re more likely to make a better profit margin.