Getting it Right: Tennis Betting Strategies that are Simply Ace
Serving up a Winning Bet
You’ll hear much about the different strategies for betting on football, but not really as much about tennis betting strategies. However, there are some pretty good strategies that will earn you good money if you can work them correctly. Betting on Federer for a win at Wimbledon is not going to see you get rich quick any time soon. If you look deeper into the tennis markets and the tennis betting strategies there are many different ways to get more bang for your buck when making a big bet.
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Betting on Points
When you bet on points, it’s much faster paced than when you bet on the overall outcome of a match. It’s also less predictable as well, so it can up the excitement somewhat. This is more risky than other tennis betting strategies around and can create added drama. Even the very best players around can mess up points and make errors at times. The outcome of a match may be easy to predict, but certainly the outcome of every point isn’t.
Bookmakers in general won’t allow punters to bet on the next point. However, they do tend compel the bettors to wager on every 2 points. The main reason behind this is the fact that there may be a delay in the broadcasting. This could lead to a very costly error. It could affect the bookies greatly if bettors are watching from the courtside then placing a bet quickly on odds that they aren’t updating quickly enough.
Take a Chance
Although betting on the next point seems like a system of luck, a simple 50-50 lottery, it isn’t always. There are ways you can increase your winning potential when you make this bet. The obvious first pointer is to bet on the person who is serving. Often the server has the advantage and often the points will go with the server. However, as you can imagine, the odds are always reflecting this statistic.
Also, this isn’t always the case. Some players have particularly weak serves and some are just playing against players with particularly strong return of serves. There’s also the fact that when right handed players play against left handed players, the outcomes can be more variable. This is obviously a fact that bookies are aware of also. The bookmakers will always be aware of who has what skills, and with whom the advantage lays. So the odds will always be a reflection of this. Having said that, the odds will still be favourable compared to the outright winner of the match. Therefore, despite it being much more based on luck than some other strategies, if you make more educated decisions then you’ll have more chance of getting a well-paid return on your money.
One big difference that tennis has from football is that this is a game that can’t end with a draw. In every tennis match played, ultimately, there will be one winner and one loser. It is because of this that is makes it less risky, and indeed more profitable to bet on handicaps. So, what are the odds – what odds are worth it? What is the strategy and is it really worth it?
Well, very often, there is a favourite playing an underdog – particularly in the earlier stages of the Grand Slam tournaments. Many of these games aren’t worth wagering on. If Federer was playing an unseeded Brit in the first round of the Australian Open, then the odds on Federer winning are so high that it’s pointless – you won’t win anything – so you wouldn’t bother. The odds of the other player winning are really high, so put your money there and you’ll win big. However, the likelihood of that happening is slim, so again, you’re throwing money down the drain really. A way of combatting these ridiculous odds and making it worthwhile to bet on is by using a handicaps strategy.
It’s the Taking Part that Counts
If you decide to use this system, you’re not betting on a player to win, but just to perform well. The idea of this system is simply adding either a positive or negative handicap next to a player. So, an example of this is if Nadal was to play De Schepper, a -5 handicap would be given to the Spaniard and a +5 handicap would be given to the French player. The favourite to win would be given a negative handicap and the underdog would be given a positive handicap. Basically – the favourite receives a number of games disadvantage, and the underdog gets a number of games advantage. If you bet on the player who wins the most games after the handicap has been applied, you win. It really doesn’t matter who wins the overall match.
If Nadal was given a -5 handicap and he won a best of 3-set match 6-2, 6-2, then Nadal wins 12 games and De Schepper wins 4. When we apply the handicap, we deduct 5 games from Nadal, making it 12-5 against 4, which is still 7 against 4, so even with the Handicap, Nadal is still the overall victor. If you bet on Nadal with a -5 handicap you’d be quids in. Conversely, if you bet on De Schepper to win with a +5 handicap, it would be a score line of 12 – 9. Therefore, De Schepper would still be the loser, meaning you would have lost.
For this wager, you’d get odds of around 1.7755. This would see you win £177.5 on a £100 bet (a profit of £77.50). Alternatively, if you put a straight bet on him to win, you’d probably get around £5 profit. If you’re confident that your player is on good form, then it’s worth it.
The Betting on Sets Strategy
Because it can be too predictable to bet on an outright winner, another option is to bet on the sets. This is a little trickier than betting on the outcome of the whole match. One way of doing this is by betting on the correct set amounts. Obviously depending on the type of match – best of 3 or best of 5, there are only a certain amount of outcomes possible- 2-0, 2-1, 1-2 or 0-2 or for a best of 5 setter 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-3 or 0-3.
Obviously, you’re going to go with the favourite to win, but the question is, by what score line? One of the most popular tennis betting strategies is to go for a straight set win. But how do you decide what matches will give you the most chance of success. Well, firstly you go for a game where there is a strong favourite to win, as the likelihood of a match involving two similarly skilled being a straight set match is highly unlikely. Then you need to check out the surface on which they’re playing. Some tennis players favour one surface over another, so you need to know each player’s form on that particular surface.
So, if you want to place your money on a clear favourite, but you want a bit of a better return than the bookies are offering for a standard win, then this is a good way to get it. Obviously, there’s more risk involved in it, as there’s more chance a top player will drop a set than drop the whole match, but the odds are still in your favour – and you’ll get a better return for your money.
The Win Margin
Another way of betting on a set, as opposed to just a simple score line is by looking at the win margin in the first set. So, instead of betting on the outcome for a match, you could just bet that the favourite to win will win the first set by 6 games to 2. Again, bets of this type can earn bigger and better odds than just a straight match win. The odds for Nadal beating De Scherer in the first set are not worth the effort, but if you bet on him winning 6-2, you’ll get a better return on your original bet.
Another way to use your set betting strategy is by using the in-play markets. This way you can see the player in action. You can see what mood he’s in, what his form is like and how he has to respond to a situation – is he a set down and needs to fight back? It’s always a pretty good idea to bet on a comeback set, especially with the bigger players who most certainly won’t go down without a fight.
Betting on Totals Strategy
This is a really interesting option if you aren’t interested in betting on a particular player to win. In certain matches, the outcome of the match is relatively obvious. This gives bettors the opportunity to wager on something other than the winner or the method of victory. Betting on totals means that it’s irrelevant who the better player is. It only matters that you can figure out how the game will play out – or make an educated guess.
The most obvious and the most simple one is the total number of sets – because the variable is so low (2 or 3 in a best out of 3 and 3, 4 or 5 in a best out of 5 match). The odds of these don’t pay out as well as others, where there are many more options and variables involved. Betting on a 3 set game when there is a clear and obvious winner is standard, just like betting on a 5-set game in the Wimbledon final is a pretty decent bet looking historically.
The Total Number of Games
If you want to up the ante a little, then you could bet on the total number of games. To accurately predict this, you need to predict how many sets you believe it will be. You then need to predict how easy each set will be to win. If you were betting on a favourite player vs an underdog, then you might predict 3 sets at 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 – so a total of 25 games. However, if you are looking at a top match – a grand slam final between 2 of the best players, you might predict a 5 set match with score lines of 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5. In this case you’d be betting on a total of 53 games. The benefit of this is that you don’t have to predict who will be the overall winner. You only have to predict the correct score line.
These are the 2 biggest and most common tennis betting strategies when it comes to totals bets, but others are even more profitable. For example, you could bet on the total number of aces or the total number of double faults in a match. Although these are much tougher to predict, with some research on players, their forms, their service skills etc. you can certainly have a go at making an educated guess for sure.
Betting on Tournament Winner Strategy
If a match just isn’t exciting enough, and you want to up the ante, you could bet on the winner of a tournament. This is an easier strategy than predicting scores and double faults, but it’s also tougher than predicting the outcome of a match. Obviously, if you want to put money on a favourite, you’d go on the seeding, world ranking and current form. If you know that Federer has won 7 Wimbledon finals, is on great form and is seeded number 1, then the smart money would be on him. However, upsets happen. For example, Lleyton Hewitt won Wimbledon in 2002 – but in 2003 he was knocked out in the first round. Putting money on him would have been a disappointment. Ultimately, when there’s a top tournament, there are always 3-4 players who have the capacity to win at any one time, depending on form and conditions.
So, rather than betting on Federer to win his first match against an unseeded with practically no real profit available, there’s the option of betting on him to win the entire tournament. This may be a little riskier, but ultimately it’s still a bet where you have a good chance of winning. You’ll also get a better pay out in the end.
Like most betting strategies, the more risk, the greater the rewards. However, if you do your research, you will make sure you go into the bet with your eyes wide open. This is what gives you the best chance of picking a winner – and not just the obvious one either.